CPO vs NPO: Global Tech Divergence & Domestic High-Speed Copper Cable Opportunities

Research Findings

• Overseas CPO technology route is established with key players like NVIDIA, Marvell, Broadcom, but落地厂商 are fewer than 4, leading to supply chain concentration [2,5].
• Domestic 3D advanced packaging faces TSV and lithography equipment bottlenecks, trailing Western tech by ~20 years [3,4]. Thus, NPO/copper-based supernode architecture becomes the transition solution [1,6].
• AI data center demand drives 2026 high-speed interconnect market to exceed $100B, doubling from 2024 [2,7]. Copper cables are critical for Scale-up supernodes, with each Alibaba磐久128 rack contributing ~1M RMB in value [1,5].

Synthesis

Both global and domestic trends align on AI-driven demand for high-density interconnects. Overseas focuses on CPO for long-term efficiency, while domestic prioritizes NPO/copper to bypass packaging hurdles [2,6]. The shift to short-distance, high-volume interconnects (800G/1.6T) is universal [1,7].

Risks & Opportunities

• Opportunities: High-speed copper cable/connector suppliers stand to benefit from 2026’s explosive growth [1,5]. Supply chain concentration (e.g., <2 high-end DSP vendors) creates moats for incumbents [2,3].
• Risks: Copper faces physical limits (224G PAM4), with optical interconnects as the long-term trend [6,8]. Domestic tech gaps may delay transition to advanced architectures [3,4].