2025 Dollar Hegemony: Slow Multi极化 and Limited U.S. Economic Impact

Xueqiu Post Insights

A Xueqiu post [0] highlights consensus between Keynesian and institutionalist economists on the dollar’s role:

• Keynesians: Dollar reserve status is a result of U.S. strength (innovation, capital markets) with minimal seigniorage (0.1-0.3% of GDP).
• Institutionalists: U.S. institutional advantages (deep capital markets, rule of law) make the dollar irreplaceable in the short term.
  Both agree the dollar’s decline will have limited U.S. economic impact, predicting slow multi极化 of the global monetary system instead of a sudden collapse.

Research Findings

2025 empirical data confirms the slow multi极化 trend:

1. Dollar Dominance: The dollar’s global reserve share dropped to a 30-year low of 56.32% but remains the dominant reserve currency.
2. RMB Internationalization: RMB is the 4th largest global payment currency (3.89%) and ranks 2nd in trade融资 [1]. Over 30% of “一带一路” trade is settled in RMB [1].
3. Stablecoin Growth: Stablecoins have a total market cap exceeding $3000 billion, reshaping cross-border payments. Tether is the 17th largest holder of U.S. Treasury bonds [2][5].
4. SWIFT Transformation: SWIFT is推进 blockchain-based digital ledger建设 with participation from over 30 global financial institutions [3].

Synthesis

The Xueqiu post’s consensus aligns with 2025 research: the dollar’s decline is gradual, not catastrophic. U.S. institutional advantages and path dependency slow its replacement, while RMB and stablecoins gain incremental market share. This confirms the slow multi极化 trend of the global monetary system.

Risks & Opportunities

• Risks:
  • Slightly higher U.S. debt financing costs due to reduced global demand for dollar assets.
  • Regulatory uncertainty for stablecoins as governments adapt to their growing influence [2][5].
• Opportunities:
  • Investments related to RMB国际化 (e.g., cross-border payment infrastructure) [1].
  • Stablecoin ecosystem plays (e.g., custody, settlement platforms) [2][5].
  • Regional currency cooperation in the “一带一路” initiative [1].