Three-Layer Investment Framework: Alignment with Modern Theories & Market Relevance

Social Media Factors

The雪球 post (user ID:362684218) proposes a three-layer investment framework:

1. Long-term industry logic: Focus on irreversible trends (supply-demand, tech iteration, policy; e.g.,巨化股份 (SH600160)'s refrigerant quota and pig cycle反转).
2. Mid-term performance logic: Validate industry trends via earnings growth (e.g.,巨化股份’s 2024 low valuation due to unmet short-term performance).
3. Short-term sentiment logic: Use market情绪 for timing (not as core; e.g.,回调 as加仓 opportunity for supported assets).
   Note: The poster’s credibility lacks verifiable data (no background, experience, or prediction accuracy records) [7].

Research Findings

• Theoretical Alignment: The framework integrates fundamental analysis (industry logic), value investment (performance validation), and behavioral finance (sentiment) [4].
• Market Relevance: 2025’s AI computing wave (e.g.,Nvidia (NVDA) leading the chain) confirms industry logic’s importance [3].
• Performance Focus: Investors now prioritize valuation-fundamental matching, emphasizing performance validation [6].
• Sentiment Impact: Social media amplifies sentiment’s effect on prices [2].

Synthesis

The framework is valid despite the poster’s unknown credibility; it balances efficient market hypothesis and behavioral finance, suitable for current markets (e.g.,AI sector) [1].

Risks & Opportunities

• Risks: Overreliance on unproven sources; misapplying sentiment as core logic.
• Opportunities: Apply the framework to high-potential sectors (AI computing) for long-term gains [3].